The real yield is steady and breakevens are a touch tighter. The inflation premium eased. The real rate did not. Reading only the nominal yield mixes two moves that nearly cancel.
For gold and for long duration, the real rate is the cap, not the CPI headline. Tighter breakevens without a falling real yield are not a green light for the metal or for long bonds.
The desk notes the split so the book does not trade the wrong half of the move. The figures are delayed.
What the desk is watching
- Real yield unchanged
- Breakevens a touch tighter
- The nominal yield mixes both parts